The Calm Before the Climb: Ontario’s Housing Market Takes a Breath

The Ontario housing market has always been a little like the weather — constantly changing, often surprising, and never still for long. One month it’s blistering hot, the next it’s frostbitten. But right now, something unusual is happening: stillness.

In Durham Region, east of Toronto, the numbers tell a story of pause. Homes that once sold within days now sit longer. Detached houses in Oshawa are averaging between $800,000 and $850,000, with roughly six months’ worth of inventory — technically a buyer’s market. Yet, on the ground, it feels like no one’s quite sure who’s really in control.  

When inventory drops below two months, bidding wars erupt. Between three and four, balance returns. Beyond that, prices soften. But it’s not just about the math — it’s about mindset. In 2021, homes were flying off the market, selling for 121% of asking, with almost no listings available. Now, even as rates fall and inflation cools, many buyers are frozen in place, waiting for certainty.

But as every seasoned Realtor® knows, the market moves quietly — and quickly. By the time you see the bottom, it’s already passed. Or as the saying goes, no one rings a bell at the bottom.

History reminds us of this pattern. During the 2012 U.S. housing crash, Canadians saw opportunity where locals saw loss — and within years, those who acted early reaped the rewards. The same psychology is at play today: hesitation, doubt, and the quiet before momentum returns.

This autumn, Ontario’s market feels like it’s holding its breath. But markets don’t stay still for long — and just as the air cools, the housing market may soon begin to warm again.